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| Source: XKCD |
This simple comic actually brings out a great point. Knowing the risks actually increases your chances of a negative outcome. In a New Yorker article, Malcom Gladwell talks about how accidents increased when anti-lock brakes were first installed in automobiles and how the challenger explosion was due to an increased level of acceptable risk. He suggests that safety actually creates a false sense of reality. You begin to perceive risk differently because you know the risks. In fact, this is quite the opposite. You are no different than anyone else and knowing the risk can really hold you back.
How does this apply to business? Perhaps leaping blindly into the fray is a better way of doing business. Look at a typical entrepreneur. They are jumping into decisions before they even analyze the risks involved, but it works because of their passion and determination.
Now think of a good manager. They are not wasting time weighing the risks of every decision. Instead, they are using their instincts to choose the best decision and quickly move onto the next one.
Interesting argument that passion and determination and overcome risk I would like to see more research on it might be a good master thesis topic. I know as soon as I get about 70 to 80% of information I make a decision and if need be I change on the fly if new information comes up. It was a type of decision making method I was taught at OSC.
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